When I read about it on Twitter yesterday (follow me at @detroitdan1982), I almost fell off my chair. I don’t really hide the fact that I am a die hard Detroit Tigers fan, and I was hopeful that the club’s general manager, Dave Dombrowski, might make a play for Werth to solidify the middle of the lineup with Miguel Cabrera and the recently signed Victor Martinez. He would have also ben a defensive improvement in right field. But there was no way on God’s green earth that I thought the Tigers should pay $126 million for him. This looks like it could be the newest candidate for worst free agent contract in Major League Baseball history.
It seemed all along that the Boston Red Sox were the front runners for Werth. They reportedly had meetings with him, and all indications were that Werth would soon join the BoSox (who made their own splash on Sunday by trading for Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres). But seemingly out of nowhere, the Nats stepped forward and made the biggest free agent signing in franchise history.
Score another one for Scott Boras, though. He consistently squeezes the most out of teams for his clients. While I’m no expert, I guessed that when free agency began, Werth might be in line for a contract somewhere in the range of $70-$90 million for 6 or 7 years. I also thought the biggest fish on the market, Carl Crawford, would probably get upwards of $100 million for 6 or 7 years, but not significantly more than that. But now that Werth is getting $126 million, it seems as though Crawford is set to receive at least that much, and maybe as much as $180 million according to some sources. I really don’t think either of those guys are on par with Joe Mauer or Mark Teixeira, who have signed $180 million contracts in recent years.
As the title of the article suggests, I think this might be just a bit too much money for Werth. He turns 32 in May, and while he may improve, and it’s possible that he has a few good years ahead of him, he’s never finished a season with a batting average over .300 and he’s never had 100 RBIs. I know those aren’t the only stats that matter, but if I’m paying a guy over $100 million, I think I might want him to be able to do those things.
The contract is the same in years and dollars as the one that Vernon Wells signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in late 2006. While that one hasn’t quite worked out the way the Jays had hoped, Wells had just turned 28 at the time and seemed to have more upside at that point than Werth has now. Only time will tell, but I have a feeling that two or three years from now (or maybe even sooner), the Nationals will regret committing so much money to a player who seems unproven, at least in my eyes.
What do you think? Am I the only one who thinks that the Nationals will eventually end up regretting this deal? I’d love to know what you think!